What Is Connect Bay Area? Connect Bay Area is a proposed regional funding measure that would establish a 14-year retail transactions and use tax to stabilize and strengthen public transportation systems across the Bay Area. In Santa Clara, San Mateo, Contra Costa, and Alameda Counties, the measure would add a 0.5% (half-cent) sales tax. San Francisco would implement a 1-cent increase. If approved by a majority of voters across the five-county district, the measure is projected to generate approximately $980 million annually to support regional transit operations and service improvements. The measure is intended to address a growing fiscal crisis facing Bay Area transit agencies, including Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), Caltrain, Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA), San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (MUNI), and other regional operators.

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Why This Measure Matters: Public transportation is essential to a balanced and functional transportation system—and to the hundreds of thousands of Bay Area residents who rely on transit every day, including seniors, students, people with disabilities, low-income households, and essential workers. While transit ridership continues to recover from the pandemic, fare revenue remains below pre-pandemic levels. At the same time:

• Federal and state emergency funding is expiring

• Sales tax and other local revenues are softening

• Transit agencies face significant operating deficits

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Some agencies are already implementing austerity measures. For example, VTA has enacted hiring freezes, while MUNI has begun service reductions and other cost-saving actions. Without new funding, the Bay Area could face a historic reduction in public transportation service, fundamentally reshaping mobility throughout the region.

What Could Happen Without Additional Funding? Transit agencies across the Bay Area have warned of potentially severe consequences if new operating revenue is not secured.

Caltrain could:

• Close more than one-third of its stations

• Eliminate weekend service

• Reduce frequency to hourly trains

• End service after 9 p.m.

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These changes alone could add an estimated 36,000 additional daily car trips and approximately 220 metric tons of CO₂ emissions per day.

BART contingency plans include:

• 63–70% service reductions

• Trains arriving only every 30 minutes

• Shutdown of service after 9 p.m.

• Closure of 10–15 stations

• Elimination of some rail lines

• Fare increases of up to 30%

Other systems face similarly serious impacts:

• MUNI: major service reductions and suspension of historic lines

• VTA: additional cuts and austerity measures to a system already operating below its 2002 peak service levels

• Regional bus operators: potential reductions in frequency, hours, and coverage

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These reductions would fundamentally change whether transit remains usable for many riders. A train every 30 minutes is no longer rapid transit for most commuters, particularly for those who rely on timed transfers or work nontraditional hours.

Transportation planners have warned about the potential for a long-term “transit death spiral”: Service cuts → fewer riders → lower revenue → additional cuts → greater car dependence

The consequences of a transit system collapse would extend far beyond transit riders themselves. Potential regional impacts include:

• Increased freeway congestion and longer commutes

• Reduced economic recovery for Bay Area downtowns

• Higher household transportation costs

• Increased pressure to widen highways and roadways

• Increased greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution

• Worsening mobility inequities for residents without access to a car

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If these cuts fully materialize, the Bay Area could shift from a relatively functional multimodal transportation system to a far more auto-dependent region where peak-hour travel becomes increasingly unreliable and inaccessible for many communities. Even residents who do not regularly use transit would likely feel the impacts through increased traffic congestion, parking demand, environmental impacts, and economic strain.

Current Status: Connect Bay Area is in the tail end of the signature-gathering phase for the November 2026 General Election ballot. We're working to verify more than 200,000 signatures to qualify the measure.

How You Take Action

• Endorse the measure

• Request a presentation by responding to this email

• Engage in VTA and/or SamTrans' local transit investment planning processes by contacting Adina Levin at adina@seamlessbayarea.org 

• Share information with your networks. We'd be happy to provide any information or materials that you may need.